As I had foreseen, instability in the USA is going to grow more and more – a new civil “war” spilling into Europe can’t be ruled out. Charlottesville is the tip of an iceberg: the struggle between liberals and traditional America which elected Donald Trump.
Eight months ahead of presidential elections in the USA, I foresaw three events on the basis of an in-depth analysis:
- Donal J. Trump could win the Republican ticket
- Donal J. Trump could become the 45th president of the United States of America
- Increasing instability in the USA due to the struggle between liberals and traditional America.
You can read my analysis (in Italian) in Rischi di Stabilita’ Geopolitica in USA?.
A few days before Americans went to the polls, I wrote an article which – among other things – analyzed two scenarios:
- Hillary Clinton’s victory. I wrote: ‘… Whatever the outcome, whether the winner is Clinton or Trump, the USA will change forever …’
- Donald Trump’s victory. I wrote: ‘… if liberal America loses presidential election (and, maybe, even congressional elections), will it accept the governance loss to the advantage of an America [traditional America] many liberals despise? If Hillary Clinton loses elections, the world will begin to change – the transition will probably be neither short nor painless: as regards the USA, I foresee tensions – notably racial ones – will grow more and more …’
Besides, I analyzed other aspects of this struggle, e.g., the confrontation between globalists/elitists and populists/nationalists. BTW, you can read the full text of my analysis (in Italian) in Elezioni USA – Scontro Globale tra Due Mondi, i.e., Elections in the USA – Global struggle between two worlds.
In the US, the two sides of this struggle are usually referred to as (I include some nicknames by opponents):
- Liberals, elitists, lefties, commies, socialists, and so on
- Conservatives, conservative republicans, traditional Americans, traditionalists, intolerant, right wingers, rednecks, and so on.
As you can see, the sheer number of nicknames (I did not include many derogatory ones) is an indication of how heartfelt the struggle is. As I wrote in my previous analyses, after having realized its own power by way of the internet and social networks, traditional America took the occasion – presidential election – to measure its own strength.
Important note: this article is an attempt at understanding the future; as such, it takes into account far-fetched possibilities – in mathematics, this is known as reductio ad absurdum. Please keep this in mind.
THE CONFEDERATE FLAG, RACIAL RIOTS AND CHARLOTTESVILLE
Let’s begin with the Confederate flag – actually, it never was the flag of the Confederacy and it is properly known as the Rebel flag.
After the Civil War (and its horrors in the South) the Confederate flag became a symbol of southern pride and heritage; besides, it often became a symbol of traditional America. It was sometimes used by groups such as the Ku Klux Klan (KKK), but it never was the flag of KKK – its official flag being the Stars and Stripes.
When the civil right era came to an end, some powerful associations such as the NAACP (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People), started a campaign against symbols linked to the Confederacy – the Confederate flag being their main target.
After the Charleston massacre, perpetrated by a fanatic supremacist whose website also contained pictures of him and a Confederate flag, a massive campaign against the Confederate flag was launched – Barack Obama criticized it as a symbol of hate. As a result, Charlottesville municipality decided to remove a large statue of general Robert E. Lee, confederate army commander during the Civil War. The Alt-right organized a national rally (Unite the Right) to protest the removal.
In the meantime, the KKK (whose follower numbers had being plummeting during previous years) had taken the occasion, i.e., the campaign against the Confederate flag, to promote itself – it did so by becoming a Confederate flag paladin. This, in turn, led to even more hate (from the liberal field) for the Confederate flag.
Barack Obama took many other stances on racial matters; his stances appear to have been unfortunate – surely they were worthless. At any rate, riots and/or shootings and/or ambushes in Ferguson, Dallas (five officers killed by an African American sniper during a Black Lives Matters rally) and other places sprouted.
Groups as Black Lives Matters and Antifa began gaining prominence. These groups – and others – are sometimes termed Alt-left.
Alt-right is composed of many different groups, neo-nazi ones and KKK being a small extremist fringe.
At any rate, fights in Charlottesville broke out between antifas and KKK/neo-nazis.
As the KKK and at least a neo-nazi displayed Confederate flags, said flag is now considered a symbol of hate by liberals. Said flag is a cherished symbol for many Southerners and many traditional Americans.
As the Alt-left is vandalizing more and more Confederate monuments and flags, one can expect a strong backlash from traditional America.
CHARLOTTESVILLE AND IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES
As we have seen, fights between antifas and KKK/neo-nazi groups broke out in Charlottesville. How did this happen?
- Charlottesville is to a large degree a “liberal” city; the city council decided to remove general Robert E. Lee statue
- A Unite the Right national rally was organized (by the Alt-right) to protest the removal and to try to unite the Alt-right; the Alt-right got all the necessary permissions
- Before the rally, authorities tried to stop the rally; a judge ruled in favor of the rally
- The night ahead of the rally, KKK and neo-nazi groups staged a parade; fights broke out
- Shortly before the rally began, the governor declared a state of emergency; the gathering was declared an illegal assembly
- Fights broke out between KKK / Neo-nazi groups and counter-protesters, namely antifas. According to first reports on Twitter, the police didn’t intervene. Those fights lead to many wounded on both sides
- A local woman was killed when a far right extremist drove his car into a crowd of counter-protesters. There are at least two different versions of how this happened, but as of now it appears the far right extremist did it on purpose.
- Even if only fringe groups were involved in violences, liberals blamed them on the Alt-right and on president Trump
- Some Alt-left people begun doxxing whomever took part in the rally, no matter whether he was involved in violences or not. At least a participant has complained of repeated intrusions and fears for his life; his complaints are widely circulating on social medias – where he gets bad word and worse by many liberals
- It seems it is hunting season – whoever took part in the rally or defends Confederate symbols has become a “target”
- Hate for the Alt-right, conservatives and Donald Trump has reached alarming levels
- David Duke (formerly KKK leader) is happy.
BTW, these events are going to paralyze the United States while it is trying to deal with very complex matters, e.g., North Korea and China – see Conseguenze per l’Export del Declino USA nel Pacifico Sud-Occidentale.
WHAT IS THE TRUE PROBLEM?
In my opinion, everything comes down to liberals wanting to regain the power they lost with presidential and congressional elections. This is the reason why liberals immediately blamed Donald Trump for Charlottesville. This is the reason why Donald Trump took time to give a strong statement: he realized Charlottesville was a casus belli against him, the Alt-right, conservatives and traditional America – his political base.
No one should doubt traditional America is not racist, nor that the Confederate (battle) flag and Confederate statues are not racist symbols. But we are dealing with politics, and politics need targets – symbols are perfect targets, for no one is willing to admit he is targeting fellow Americans’ vision and ideals.
If you wanted to know more about the liberal counter-offensive, I would advise you to read Obama, Trump e Putin – Guerra Aperta tra Elitismo e Populismo.
I harbor many doubts on how the Charlottesville matter was dealt with: basically, an hostile city attempted to cancel the rally, than allowed a counter-protest; besides, it apparently allowed counter-protesters to reach protesters. At some point, authorities declared a state of emergency and declared the rally (but, apparently, not the counter-protest) illegal. Everyone is sad for what happened there, but it seems to me it was a miracle nothing worse happened.
Traditional Americans are expressing their feelings: their heritage, beliefs and symbols are under attack from liberals. This feeling is going to get expressed stronger and stronger; as the emotional impact of Charlottesville decreases, facts are analyzed and “attack” by liberals increase, we are going to witness a counter-offensive. Trump and some conservatives on social networks are spearheading the counter-offensive.
Remember: traditional America discovered its strength thanks to the web and social networks – and measured it by way of elections.
A NEW CIVIL “WAR”?
Nowadays there are many different types of war: war is often not fought on battlefields anymore – many future wars will probably be fought in cities and neighbourhoods.
Donald Trump’s initial reaction to Charlottesville was the right one: an attempt at fostering unity in the USA. Whatever personal feelings one may have, it is obvious – at least to anyone who had analyzed American geopolitics – much is at stake.
Unfortunately, almost every other politician has hopped on the indignation bandwagon which is being steered by emotions. The disapproving race is going on – everyone wants to be on the winner’s side.
Results are in front of everyone: while both some Alt-right and some Alt-left groups took part in violences, media and politicians have decided there is just on side which is guilty of everything – the other side being composed of good Americans. A nationwide witch-hunt has ensued; besides, many people state freedom of speech should be limited, but just in some cases – many go to the extent of justifying violence against persons expressing their opinion.
The witch-hunt: because of opinions, someone are being doxxed and consequently fired; someone has reported being stabbed because he has supported fired people.
In my opinion, this will lead to:
- Violence and intimidation
- Clashes and firefights between targeted people and vigilantes
- Alt-left groups, emboldened, will get bolder and bolder
- New legislation curtailing freedom of speech
- Social network and internet censorship
- Alt-right groups going underground; deprived of freedom of speech and demonstration, they may cross the line and take illegal actions – this may lead to guerrilla tactics
- Many conservatives and traditional American will try to hide their true opinion
- Attempts (e.g., impeachment or mass demonstrations) at deposing Donald Trump.
If, whatever the reason, Donald Trump ceased to be president of the US, the situation would turn nasty very fast.
The Civil War (1861-1865) divide was due to geographical, economic and way of thinking differences.
The new divide is much deeper: it runs along racial and maybe even religious lines; it runs along ideals and deep convictions – those are heartfelt lines. Besides, it is a divide between liberals and traditional America, between big liberal cities and small conservative communities.
While the Civil War was mainly fought on the battlefield, a new civil “war” would imply guerrilla tactics: something similar to Quantrill’s tactics during the Civil War, but on small scale. I am not saying it will be a full-fledged war, just that “war” tactics will be adapted to the situation. If this “war” broke out, I would expect to see the equivalent of the Union’s scorched-earth tactics (1864-1865) in the South – obviously on a very small scale.
Let’s call it a “private” war – a war fought not by nations but by individuals and organized groups. A nasty war.
Many Alt-right people see themselves as being of European descent – as opposed to African Americans, Latins, and so on. There is a link between American and European Alt-right – see Geopolitics, NGOs and other Non-state Actors – Three Case Studies.
On the other hand, there is a strong link between liberals (I make use of the American term) on the two continents and between American Alt-left and European organizations, e.g., the Antifa movement.
If “war” broke out in the US, it would probably spill into Europe – on the same terms as in the USA. As this would be a “private” war and national states were greatly weakened by international organizations (such as the EU) in Europe, I expect this war to be even more “private” than in the US.
What about instability and export?
Whatever may happen in the USA, instability is going to increase; even internal security may decrease. This in not good for export.
What about far-fetched possibilities, i.e., unrest spilling into Europe?
Given that I am exploring far-fetched possibilities, the vice-versa could happen, i.e., European events being the fuse for unrest or even “war” in the USA. At any rate, increasing instability in the United States means increasing instability in Europe.
Let’s hope Americans find a way of coming together.
Video: The USA After Charlottesville – A New Civil War?